AI PACs Spend Millions but Lose Key 2026 Midterm Races
AI PACs spent millions in the 2026 midterms, but major bets failed as the fight over federal rules versus state safeguards moves toward the 2028 elections.
Summary
American Mission and Building the Future spent $4.8 million backing South Carolina Senate candidate Darline Graham, who lost Tuesday’s 2026 midterm race. American Mission, Leading the Future’s Republican arm, is backed by OpenAI president Greg Brockman and Andreessen Horowitz. It also spent more than $500,000 each on losing House Republicans Aaron Flint in Montana and Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina. LTF’s Democratic arm, Think Big, backed Florida Representative Jared Moskowitz’s reelection win. Anthropic backed Public First supported several losing Republicans through an affiliated PAC but fared better with Democrats. It contributed $3 million to a PAC supporting California state Senator Scott Wiener, who was leading as of November 4, 2026. Guardrails Alliance spent more than $1 million each opposing Flint and California Representative Jimmy Gomez, both defeated, and $300,000 supporting Angela Gonzales-Torres, who beat Gomez.
Results are difficult to isolate from Tuesday’s Democratic wave. Elon Musk reportedly poured half a billion dollars into Republicans, yet many of his candidates lost. LTF also backed expected winners who fell to Democrats. LTF prioritizes primaries, where it says spending builds recognition and AI agendas. It spent $27.38 million there, including $8 million opposing New York Assembly member Alex Bores, whose congressional bid failed in June. Before entering general elections, LTF weighs competitiveness, potential impact and conserving funds.
Guardrails political director Charlie Blaettler argues LTF limits general election spending to avoid making AI money a liability. He cited pro-Israel group AIPAC’s nearly $30 million backing Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. She conceded to Abdul El-Sayed, who won the seat. LTF ads rarely mention AI, while Guardrails targets candidates taking industry money. The central fight is a national AI framework overriding state laws versus continued state safeguard authority. LTF supports national rules and plans 2028 spending, while Guardrails will keep opposing industry backed candidates.
Positives
- Think Big backed Florida Representative Jared Moskowitz, who won reelection.
- Guardrails Alliance spent $300,000 supporting Angela Gonzales-Torres, who defeated California Representative Jimmy Gomez.
- Scott Wiener was leading after a supporting PAC received $3 million from Anthropic backed Public First.
- Guardrails Alliance opposed Aaron Flint and Jimmy Gomez with more than $1 million each, and both candidates lost.
Risks & concerns
- American Mission and Building the Future spent $4.8 million backing Darline Graham, who lost South Carolina’s Senate race.
- American Mission spent more than $500,000 each supporting Aaron Flint and Laurie Buckhout, but both House candidates lost.
- Public First’s affiliated PAC supported several unsuccessful Republican candidates.
- Elon Musk reportedly spent half a billion dollars supporting Republicans, yet many of his candidates lost during the Democratic wave.
- Election results cannot cleanly establish whether AI related spending changed outcomes.
- AI industry funding could become a liability for candidates as Guardrails Alliance works to make that money politically toxic.