AI Spending Stalls as Price War Clouds Anthropic IPO Growth Story
Ramp data shows AI token spend rose just 1.5% in August and September, as price cuts squeeze OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of Anthropic's planned IPO filing.
Summary
Ramp data published November 6, 2026, shows companies consuming more AI tokens without proportionally increasing spending. Token spend grew 1.5% across August and September after July’s 42% monthly jump, then accelerated 8.9% from September 23 to October 23. Ramp lead economist Ara Kharazian said nearly all AI spending comes from venture-backed, high-growth technology companies. The top 1% of users slipped below their summer peak of $10,000 per employee monthly, enough to flatten overall revenue despite growth among median companies, spending $12 to $15, and the top 10%, spending $600 to $1,000. Software and finance support expensive coding agents, but doctors’ offices and car dealerships may never approach top-tier spending.
OpenAI halved September API prices for GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna, while Anthropic reduced Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5 prices, cutting projected revenue growth by about $600 million. Enterprise discounts, Meta and Nvidia offerings, Chinese and US open models, and Jev, a lightweight tool for predetermined outputs, further favor buyers. Customers also control costs through budgets, cheaper defaults and model routers, matching October 22 data shared by Notion co-founder Akshay Kothari. Anthropic’s potential valuation has fallen from $2 trillion in early October to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion ahead of its IPO, with a high junk credit rating expected. OpenAI lowered its proposed valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion and reduced fundraising plans by about $10 billion. Investors hope personal agents from OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Meta and Instinct can replicate the commercial impact coding achieved over the past 18 months, but Kharazian doubts they are equally productive.
Positives
- 8.9% token-spend growth from September 23 to October 23 marked a partial recovery after the late-summer stall.
- 42% monthly growth in July demonstrates that enterprise AI spending can still accelerate sharply.
- Rising token volumes show companies continue expanding AI use even as they reduce the cost of each workload.
- $12 to $15 median and $600 to $1,000 top-decile monthly spending per employee both continued growing.
- OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Meta and Instinct personal agents could create another commercial use case after coding agents.
- Cheaper models, budgets and routers let customers complete more AI work without matching increases in spending.
Risks & concerns
- 1.5% token-spend growth across August and September sharply trailed July’s 42% increase.
- Top 1% spending slipped below $10,000 per employee monthly, enough to flatten model-provider revenue despite rising usage.
- $600 million in projected Anthropic revenue growth was lost after price reductions for Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5.
- Anthropic’s potential valuation fell from $2 trillion to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with a high junk rating expected.
- OpenAI cut its proposed valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion and reduced fundraising ambitions by about $10 billion.
- Meta, Nvidia, open models and Jev intensify price competition that may prevent OpenAI and Anthropic from restoring hypergrowth.