Anthropic Backers Eye $2 Trillion October IPO as Revenue Soars
Anthropic backers target an October IPO above $2 trillion as Claude revenue surges, despite export controls, high prices and tougher AI competition risks.
Summary
Six Anthropic backers told the Financial Times that the five-year-old Claude maker could list in October at $2 trillion or more, overtaking SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion June debut as the largest IPO ever and unlocking billions for early investors. Dario Amodei’s company filed SEC paperwork in June and entered a quiet period, but executives have not set an IPO valuation. Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in May, when it first surpassed OpenAI, after venture capitalists, sovereign wealth funds and institutions invested just under $100 billion during 2026.
Anthropic reported annualized revenue above $47 billion in May, using recent sales to project a full year, while investors expect $100 billion to $120 billion by year end, more than tenfold growth during 2026. One backer said 800 percent annual growth at 30 times revenue would imply $3 trillion; AI beneficiaries Palantir and Nebius have traded near 55 times revenue. Anthropic gained US business share last month and released models outperforming OpenAI and Google, but June growth slowed after Commerce Department export controls forced temporary withdrawals of Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Growth subsequently rebounded, according to two investors. Risks include Chinese competition, regulation, litigation against the Department of Defense after its supply-chain risk designation, and conflict with the Trump administration. Artificial Analysis says Anthropic’s leading model costs more than 2.5 times OpenAI’s flagship, while improved Chinese open-weight models cost a fraction. Ramp says businesses are reaching AI spending limits, reversing maximum-use policies and choosing cheaper, weaker models. Anthropic declined to comment.
Positives
- Annualized revenue exceeded $47 billion in May and could reach $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026.
- Anthropic’s $965 billion May valuation surpassed OpenAI’s for the first time after nearly $100 billion of 2026 investment.
- Anthropic gained US business market share last month, according to payments company Ramp.
- New Anthropic models outperformed competitors from OpenAI and Google while the company expanded business sales.
- Revenue growth rebounded after June’s slowdown, according to two investors familiar with the company’s performance.
Risks & concerns
- Commerce Department export controls forced Anthropic to withdraw Fable 5 and Mythos 5 temporarily, unsettling customers and slowing June growth.
- Anthropic remains in litigation with the Department of Defense after being designated a supply-chain risk.
- Anthropic’s leading model costs more than 2.5 times OpenAI’s flagship, according to Artificial Analysis.
- Ramp found businesses reaching AI spending limits, abandoning maximum-use policies and selecting cheaper, less capable models.
- Chinese open-weight models improved sharply during 2026 and cost a fraction of Anthropic’s leading offering.
- A $2 trillion valuation would test public markets increasingly concerned about AI investment, regulation and competition.