Family Offices Chase Anthropic and OpenAI in AI Investment Rush
Family offices are targeting Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI leaders through direct and secondary deals, despite inflated valuations and mounting bubble fears.
Summary
By September 2026, family offices were redirecting private fortunes into AI through direct purchases and secondaries rather than decade-long blind-pool venture funds. Djoann Fal, a family office adviser and Atlas Capital investor in San Francisco, says clients favor a possible 3x AI return in three months over 3x in three years, while a more risk-tolerant generation targets individual leaders. Deloitte put family office wealth at $5.5 trillion in 2024 and projected at least $9.5 trillion by 2030. UBS's 2026 survey of 307 offices averaging $2.7 billion in net worth found private equity, venture capital and private credit at 42% of portfolios.
The revival follows a sharp cycle. UBS tracked direct investments rising from 9% of portfolios in 2019 to 13% in 2021, when PwC counted 17,460 family office deals worth about $1.05 trillion. Rising rates and weak returns then drove direct and M&A activity down 53% within 18 months by late 2023, while total volume reached a decade low in the first half of 2025. Offices are now writing larger checks across fewer, often revenue-generating companies. Angelina Hu of Bridge Funding Global says secondaries avoid exposure across 20 to 30 companies. Fal raised record sums for AI while non-AI clients struggled, and saw $50 million to $100 million of summer demand for Anthropic. Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are among venture's most contested, PitchBook's Emily Zheng says. Buyers accept primary-style prices for secondary-stage risk, narrowing potential returns.
J.P. Morgan Private Bank found in February that 65% of global family offices plan to prioritize AI despite inflated valuations. UBS Global Wealth Management's Maximilian Kunkel cites geopolitical tension, global debt, recession risk and market uncertainty. Investors are diversifying by region, currency and asset class, but Keebeck Wealth Management founder Bruce K. Lee warns an AI collapse could damage the wider stock market as return-hungry clients resist hedging.
Positives
- Deloitte projects family office wealth will rise from $5.5 trillion in 2024 to at least $9.5 trillion by 2030.
- 42% of the average portfolio in UBS's 2026 survey comprised private equity, venture capital and private credit.
- Revenue-generating secondaries offer exposure to proven private companies without spreading capital across 20 to 30 holdings.
- $50 million to $100 million of summer demand targeted Anthropic shares through the secondary market.
- 65% of global family offices plan to prioritize AI investments, J.P. Morgan Private Bank found in February.
Risks & concerns
- Primary-style prices for secondary-stage risk leave family offices with limited room for outsized returns.
- Direct and M&A activity fell 53% within 18 months by late 2023 after rising rates and disappointing returns.
- Overall family office deal volume reached its lowest level in a decade during the first half of 2025.
- Non-AI clients struggled to raise capital while Fal's record fundraising was earmarked entirely for AI.
- An AI collapse could spread into the wider stock market as concentrated investors resist hedging, Bruce K. Lee warns.
