Solar Geoengineering War Game Exposes Risk of US China Arms Race
A London war game found US-China rivalry, disinformation and fossil fuel influence could derail global rules for risky solar geoengineering research worldwide.
Summary
At Queen Mary University of London in September 2025, Danielle Young convened about two dozen participants for Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies. Its simulated UN committee met in the present, September 2027 and September 2028 to govern solar radiation modification. Atmospheric particles such as sulphur dioxide could mimic volcanic cooling of 0.5 degrees or more, but models indicate drier sub Saharan Africa, stronger Atlantic tropical storms and abrupt warming if treatment stops. Stardust Solutions raised $60 million in 2025 and unveiled temperature control inventions in May 2026; Elon Musk backed geoengineering in August, and Cynthia Scharf expects governance decisions within a decade.
US and China rejected limits that could advantage the other. A Russian alert about a suspected US plane near the Bering Strait, genuine US flights, false suspicions of Chinese experiments, and China's technology sharing approach to SpaceX produced accusations, an investigation demand and collapsed talks. A secret US Saudi test of Stardust technology later created an aerosol plume. The fossil fuel backed Climate Futures Cooperative offered climate researcher Colleen Golja monitoring money, then wrecked her credibility; Russia, the US, SpaceX and Stardust suspected its identity but stayed silent. No proposal passed. Young's team, sponsored by the Advanced Research and Invention Agency, concluded sovereignty and strategic competition displaced climate concerns.
In March 2026, two conservative US think tanks urged Donald Trump's administration to lead and invoked “weather sovereignty.” In October, UK Ministry of Defense consultancy research emerged, while Britain's first policy backed research but rejected deployment. Stardust CEO Yanai Yedvab promises no large outdoor test or deployment before global governance. Europe's summer drought and heat continued, and an August 2026 glacier collapse on the Tibet Nepal border killed more than 1,450 people. Golja, whose climate emulator was ignored, now plans Connecticut seawalls and erosion buffers.
Positives
- Britain's October 2026 policy backed further solar radiation modification research while explicitly rejecting deployment and saying none is planned.
- Stardust CEO Yanai Yedvab pledged no large outdoor experiment or deployment before global governance exists.
- European countries and Canada repeatedly proposed safeguards and open scientific research despite resistance from competing powers.
- Solar radiation modification could mimic volcanic eruptions that temporarily cool Earth by 0.5 degrees or more.
Risks & concerns
- No governance proposal passed as US and Chinese representatives rejected restrictions that might give their rival a technological advantage.
- False suspicions of Chinese experiments helped create the simulated geoengineering arms race participants feared.
- Models indicate solar radiation modification could dry sub Saharan Africa and intensify Atlantic tropical storms.
- Stopping atmospheric treatment could cause rapid, unpredictable global warming after its temporary cooling effect ends.
- The fossil fuel backed Climate Futures Cooperative used funding to undermine Colleen Golja's scientific credibility.
- A glacier collapse on the Tibet Nepal border killed more than 1,450 people in August 2026 as climate pressures intensified.